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Respond to the question: Optimizing a set of points against an op?

 03/26/2015 05:56 PM by Jordy; Optimizing a set of points against an opposite set of points
Hello, I'm quite interested in the idea of adapting your strategy not to the rules of a given game, but to the strategy your opponent is taking.

Recently I came across quite an interesting real-life problem that got me thinking about how to best adapt my strategy to that of my opponent.

I'll try to present my problem as clearly as possible in an abstract way, but in short it's the idea that I am entering a competition against one other competitor in a fantasy league where we both have to pick a roster which get compared to each other.

I suppose in an abstract way this could translate to the fact that you have a finite number of figures which all score an unknown amount of points.
Each player has to chose 8, different, figures after which the scoring for each figure will be announced and the player with the most points wins the game.

Each figure has a cost attached to it and a likelihood of how well it will score, you only have a limited amount of money to spent so you cannot simply chose all the figures which are most likely to score well.

Furthermore, groups of figures are 'linked' as in that their score is closely related to the score of other figures in their group.

Assuming there is some way for me to deduct which figures my opponent has chosen, or which figures he is most likely to have chosen, how do I adapt my choices to increase my overall chances of scoring higher than him?

Basically, my question comes down to, assuming he has chosen the optimal set of figures, how do I take up as much 'ground' around his choice in case one of his figures under-performs in it's score compared to what it was likely to score.

I hope my example is somewhat clear or that you are able to deduct what I am meaning and that someone can help me with where I should focus on.

Kind regards,
Jordy

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